Essays on Infinite Lifespans
also multiply todays production levels while solving several
significant environmental challenges. 
Visions that emphasize human ingenuity and opportunity have
a far more impressive historical record than those that emphasize
human passivity and helplessness. Paul Ehrlich is a classic case of
to recognize how consistently bad he has been at making environ-
mental predictions. In a 1969 article, Ehrlich predicted the oceans
dead from DDT poisoning by 1979 and devoid of fish; 200,000
deaths from smog disasters in New York and Los Angeles in
1973; U.S. life expectancy dropping to 42 years by 1980 because
of pesticide-induced cancers, and U.S. population declining to
22.6 million by 1999.  Ehrlich famously lost a ten year bet
against cornucopian economist Julian Simon (and refused to
renew the bet).  In 1974, Ehrlich recommended stockpiling
cans of tuna due to the certainty of protein shortages in the USA.
And so on.
As Bailey explains , contrary to Ehrlich:
Instead, according to the United Nations, agricultural
production in the developing world has increased by
52 percent per person since 1961. The daily food intake
in poor countries has increased from 1,932 calories,
barely enough for survival, in 1961 to 2,650 calories in
1998, and is expected to rise to 3,020 by 2030. Likewise,
the proportion of people in developing countries who
are starving has dropped from 45 percent in 1949 to
18 percent today, and is expected to decline even fur-
ther to 12 percent in 2010 and just 6 percent in 2030.
Food, in other words, is becoming not scarcer but ever
more abundant. This is reflected in its price. Since 1800
food prices have decreased by more than 90 percent,
and in 2000, according to the World Bank, prices were
lower than ever before.