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Why Doesn't Kurzweil Really Donate to the MMP?


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#1 John Doe

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Posted 15 December 2004 - 03:30 AM


As a life extensionist, I think the Methuselah Mouse Prize is one of the greatest inventions in human history. I cannot wait for it to succeed, just like the X-Prize, within my lifetime. It is amazing what competition and markets can accomplish.

I am also a fan of Ray Kurzweil, although I have my reservations. Kurzweil is perhaps the most mainstream transhumanist in the world. His success as a businessmen and inventor are outstanding, and his promotion of the transhumanist cause has been awesome. Earlier, Kurzweil was very focused upon Artificial Intelligence. His commitment to the cause of Friendly AI, however, led Yudkowsky to write "How Kurzweil Lost The Singularity." I'm not sure that Kurzweil lost anything. But I do detect an inconsistency between his enthusiasm for Artificial Intellegence, and his limiting his activism to books for the general audience and AI Poets.

Since The Age of Spiritual Machines, however, Kurzweil has become more focused upon life extension therapies, even those of dubious worth. His enthusiasm for vitamin milkshakes doesn't bother me so much--even Darwin had his water therapy. If he can afford his expensive therapies, then of course he should do whatever makes him happy. But Kurzweil is also a big fan of Aubrey de Grey and the Mouse Prize. He even mentions Aubrey in his new book Fantastic Voyage, to support his claim that radical life extension is coming. When I read Kurzweil citing de Grey's work, I start to feel excited. I want Kurzweil's predictions to be right, just as he was right about Deep Blue and the Internet. I don't want to die.

But when I consider Kurzweil's wealth and his small contribution to the Mouse Prize, I wonder whether I am detecting the same inconsistency Yudkowsky noted. Kurzweil donated 1,000$, less than half of what ImmInst regulars Reason and Kevin donated. It is also infinitely more than the zero dollars I've donated--but I'm not a millionaire. I would donate if I thought my small contribution would be likely to make a difference, if my donation would be rational. But the Mouse Prize doesn't need 500$. It needs 500$ million. The Prize needs someone with (i) deep pockets and (ii) the vision and moral insight to recognize the Prize's importance. This person could give the Prize a kick-start--his philanthropy could be recorded throughout eternity. Kurzweil fits that description perfectly. Unless we do something, everyone of us is going to die, millionaires and law students alike.

I am not criticizing Kurzweil, so much as I am speculating. He can spend his money any way he chooses. But does he really think that vitamin milkshakes and day spas are more likely to save his life than the Mouse Prize is? If Kurzweil really wants to live forever, wouldn't it be wiser for him to increase his donation by three, or four, orders of magnitude?

#2 reason

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Posted 15 December 2004 - 05:14 AM

When you have money, you give only a little to each new cause. If said cause grows - i.e. shows it has responsible, sane, talented people at helm, then more later. I expect most of the early, wealthy donors to give more in the years ahead.

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#3 Da55id

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Posted 15 December 2004 - 08:46 AM

Mr. Kurzweil showed great bravery. His name - as he well knows - was worth far more than the nominal size of the contribution.

My favorite contribution to date is the one for fifty cents. There have been myriads of visitors to the MF site, but he pressed the button and gave - not waiting for someone else to do so - and not being embarrassed at what to us seems a small amount. We are 50 cents closer to the goal because of him.

Reason is right - we will earn the respect of wealthy donors by not needing them.

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#4

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Posted 15 December 2004 - 09:45 AM

That's one way of looking at it.

Bravery is a function of risk. What did Kurzweil risk? The MF is hardly a crackpot organization. He does not risk staining his name or brand by association. Whilst as I have posted (ad nauseam) that the model organism could be improved upon, the basis for the competition and the research it promotes are 100% legitimate and technically sound.

Which denizen of this board, were he an aging multi-millionaire with reasonable name brand status would not jump at the opportunity to catapult a venture such as the MF to new heights?

He is a technology-savvy futurist and life extension activist. His latest book shows that he is a firm believer that the technology to fundamentally alter lifespan is around the corner.

So why did he not do more for the MF? He does not necessarily need to donate millions of dollars. Just a one line promo at the end of each of those daily "KurzweilAi.com" newsletters would do wonders for the MF.

The MF is a scientifically sound promotional activity to aid longevity research, but Kurzweil does not have believe in it - enough - to do more.

#5 Bruce Klein

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Posted 15 December 2004 - 02:15 PM

Hats off to Ray for both his memetic work and for his research to elucidate the 'Law of Accelerating Returns'... also, it was generous of him to contribute 'Human Body Version 2.0' to ImmInst's first book, 'Scientific Conquest of Death'

-bruce klein

#6 lightowl

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Posted 15 December 2004 - 05:00 PM

I think Ray is doing a fantastic job in promoting the longevity meme. His work on AI and all of his books are an inspiration to all who read them. I am certain that when this longevity landslide reaches critical velocity, many of his prominent readers will stand up and be counted as supporters of our course.

What Ray says, is worth much more than the money he has given, and the fact that he has given, signals that he will almost certainly give again.

#7 John Doe

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Posted 15 December 2004 - 06:08 PM

Just to clarify: My post was not intended to attack Ray Kurzweil personally. I could have chosen any wealthy person who doesn't want to die (don't they all?). As a mainstream transhumanist, Ray makes an easy target. But as Reason points out, maybe he'll contribute more in the future. Of course, he has no obligation to contribute anything at all. I don't want my hasty speculation do detract from what Kurzweil has accomplished. In particular, I'm glad he contributed to the ImmInst book project.

As someone who doesn't want to die, I just grow a little frustrated, when I sit back and reflect on the apathy in the world. Sometimes I fantasize about wealthy persons dumping cash into the Prize. Just bringing us to escape velocity a day or two sooner could save hundreds of thousands of people. Sometimes I want to lash out. The best coping strategy is to get rich quick and make my own donation. ;)

Isn't ironic that I started this thread the same day Michael Rae joined the 300?

#8 jaydfox

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Posted 20 December 2004 - 04:36 PM

I agree with Prometheus' idea about "a one line promo at the end of each of those daily 'KurzweilAi.net' newsletters". I think that, and a prominent mention somewhere on his website, would be worth more than a $25,000 donation, in the long run.

In fact, he could set a challenge. If the MMP can raise some big number (e.g. quarter of a million U.S. dollars) in some challenging but plausible time period (e.g. by Dec. 31, 2005), then he will donate a decent chunk of his own money (e.g. $50,000).

Being able to advertize such a challenge along with the prize would probably be a helpful tool in promotion of the prize.

#9 jaydfox

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Posted 20 December 2004 - 04:40 PM

I should add that in addition to setting such a hypothetical challenge, Ray could advertize that challenge prominently in his Living Forever section, if not on the KurzweilAi.net home page itself.

#10 kevin

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Posted 20 December 2004 - 04:51 PM

I would donate if I thought my small contribution would be likely to make a difference, if my donation would be rational.


Ever hear the saying "every penny counts".. and in fact NOT donating is irrational... and I might be a little obsessive.. but I really can't see too many activities not aimed at getting life-extension moving that are rational.

More than money, as I've said more than once, having someone's name and testimonial on the site are both powerful motivators for others. In fact, seeing someone donate $5.00 is sometimes more convincing, especially when that $5.00 is a significant portion of their spending loot.

It can't be stressed enough.. the Methuselah Mouse Prize is about changing perceptions.. not about being the sole source of funding for aging interventions. ANYTHING that can contribute to help move peoples attitudes out of the 'aging is inevitable' zone is valuable.

PLEASE don't let your inability to donate $1000 inhibit you from contributing your name and thoughts which a small donation allows.

#11 jaydfox

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Posted 20 December 2004 - 05:09 PM

In fact, seeing someone donate $5.00 is sometimes more convincing, especially when that $5.00 is a significant portion of their spending loot.

Indeed. I was unemployed for ten months, deeply in debt, with family relations terribly strained. It took me a couple months before I could make the relatively small $100 donation I made, which at the time was about 12% of our family's gross monthly income, coming from my pregnant, employed wife. I don't know if that message was ever clear, but for those who knew my situation, it spoke volumes of my resolve and determination, and of what I perceived to be the great worth and credibility of the prize.

#12 JMorgan

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Posted 01 January 2005 - 11:40 AM

Ray Kurzweil is the reason I'm here. (Well, through his book, I learned of Aubrey de Grey, then saw the PopSci article which mentioned ImmInst, and voilà, here I am...)

Anyway, is there a particular place on these forums to discuss Kurzweil's ideas?

#13 reason

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Posted 01 January 2005 - 08:07 PM

Ray Kurzweil is the reason I'm here.  (Well, through his book, I learned of Aubrey de Grey, then saw the PopSci article which mentioned ImmInst, and voilà, here I am...)

Anyway, is there a particular place on these forums to discuss Kurzweil's ideas?


Any of the appropriate forum sections are ok - just post where you think it's appropriate for the idea in question and the mods will just shift the topic to a new home if it's not. Welcome aboard in any case :)

Reason
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#14

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Posted 02 January 2005 - 03:59 AM

I'm glad that PopSci article brought some new faces here.

#15 John Doe

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Posted 02 July 2005 - 05:14 AM

Well. This warms my heart. I'd love to have lunch with Kurzweil. ;)

http://www.mprize.org/auction/

#16 DukeNukem

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Posted 03 July 2005 - 11:33 PM

I think I'm going to bid on this. It'd be fun to meet with Ray and discuss supplements and nutrition, and set him straight on a few things he is doing wrong. ;-)

#17 Bruce Klein

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Posted 03 July 2005 - 11:39 PM

If you'd like, I'll join you, Duke. Email bjk@imminst.org if interested in determining bid to make team of two (or more).

#18 reason

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Posted 04 July 2005 - 01:36 AM

Maximum team size is 6 - I strongly encourage Imminst members with spare money to organize a team. Remember that the bid has to go through a single account, and bids are legally binding under US auction law (i.e. only team with people you trust to follow through or have wired you the money aforehand).

The auction will run for 10 days, so you have a little time to get organized.

Reason
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#19 Bruce Klein

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Posted 04 July 2005 - 01:44 AM

I'll be happy to organize an ImmInst Team. Simply email me bjk@imminst.org and we'll develop a max-bid.

#20 jaydfox

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Posted 04 July 2005 - 01:55 AM

I'd love to join, but alas, I'm basically broke. I'll cheer on a team from the sidelines, though!

To prevent any feelings of bitterness, Bruce, you might want to consider laying out some ground rules. I don't particularly see a need to require each member of the "team" to put in their equal financial share, e.g. if one member of the team has $10,000 to spare and is willing to put it in, then so be it. However, before allowing a person on the team, each member should probably PM the others and say up front what the maximum is they'll be able to consider giving, as well as the initial amount they'd bid, so that the team leader can know how high he or she can take the bid.

For example, and I'm just making these numbers up so please don't be offended, but if Scott wanted to put in three grand to start, and will go no higher than than ten grand, and he doesn't mind if others join as long as they put in at least a thousand to start and are willing to go as high as three thousand, then you would know that your starting bid could be as high as eight grand, and could climb as high as 25k before the team leader would have to consult everyone about possibly going higher and getting consent to do so.

Anyway, I'm sure you'll work out an even better system, but keep your "gameplan" under wraps if you think it'll help your chances.

BTW, no offense Scott, but I figured that with your position in the gaming industry, you could afford a bigger share of the bid, and wouldn't expect everyone else to match it, as long as they are in the same ballpark. No offense if that's not how you'd do this, I just needed an example.

#21 Bruce Klein

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Posted 04 July 2005 - 02:24 AM

Thanks, Jay. All good ideas. I'm suspect our team will also find a few more creative ideas on how to be successful.

#22 DukeNukem

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Posted 04 July 2005 - 02:40 AM

So, the way I understand it is this: Ray is willing to meet with the ONE winner bidder or ONE group up to six.

The problem with a team bidding approach is that it would make it VERY hard to all get together with Ray on a workable date and place. I suspect that the only viable way to build a team is for all members to be in the same geographic region. Anyone else in the Dallas area that would want to bid with me?

I wasn't going to bid more than around $1000, maybe a little higher -- certainly not more than $2000. Ray is not really a hero of mine, nor high on my list of must-meet people, so really I'm doing this more to donate to the cause. I'm also not willing to fly to meet for this dinner, so if it doesn't take place in Dallas (or as close as Austin or Houston, a reasonable driving distance from me) then I can't do it. I would assume that Ray gets around a lot so I suspect that within a year or two of winning I would be able to meet him in Texas somewhere.

If I should end up winning this on my own, I'd be more than happy to invite up to five others who can meet, but I suspect most people are in my position, and wouldn't be able to make a long trip just for this.

#23 lightowl

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Posted 04 July 2005 - 04:48 AM

I'll be happy to organize an ImmInst Team. Simply email me bjk@imminst.org and we'll develop a max-bid.


How about this rule: Everyone can bid and the six highest bidders get to come. That way its just adding up the six highest bids at any given time and bid the total on the auction. ;)

Sadly I am not in a position to bid :(

#24 Bruce Klein

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Posted 04 July 2005 - 07:55 PM

Perhaps an ImmInst Team win could focus on having Kurzweil attend the ImmInst Conference in Atlanta Nov 5 2005.

#25 reason

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Posted 05 July 2005 - 08:29 AM

The auction is underway; have at it.

http://cgi.ebay.com/...item=5592464719

Reason
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#26 DukeNukem

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Posted 05 July 2005 - 01:01 PM

Hee hee, I just bid the minimum price, $10. My real bid won't come until a few mins before the auction's close.

#27 lightowl

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Posted 05 July 2005 - 02:51 PM

I have opened a thread specifically about the auction here:

http://www.imminst.o...ST&f=161&t=7087

#28 Bruce Klein

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Posted 05 July 2005 - 05:58 PM

ImmInst Full Members, please see:
http://www.imminst.o...=ST&f=92&t=7092

#29 jaydfox

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Posted 22 July 2005 - 08:16 PM

No one has updated this yet:
Ray Kurzweil matched $4,000 to the winning auction bid of $4,050. Therefore, Ray's total financial support to the MPrize is $5,000. This doesn't include his other avenues of support, such as agreeing to do the auction in the first place, etc.

#30 forever freedom

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Posted 10 August 2008 - 04:38 AM

Bump

I still don't know why kurzweil doesn't contribute more to MMP..


Apparently he doesn't put much faith in it, being certain about how the singularity will save his life?

Edited by sam988, 10 August 2008 - 04:38 AM.





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