Posted 04 February 2005 - 02:46 PM
Actually, the hydrogen fuel cell analogy was kind of off the cuff, but in my walk to the breakroom to get some cold/pain medicine (getting over a particularly bad bout with the flu), I thought of a better way to use the analogy.
Disclaimer: First of all, don't draw too much from this analogy, as analogies can only be so useful. Maybe the hydrogen fuel cell direction is the wrong direction, and SENS is the right direction, or vice versa. I'm just looking at the dynamics of the setting up the plans to move forward.
Think of SENS as the hydrogren fuel cell camp, putting in place a vision that removes our dependence on (foreign) oil. A bold and ambitious plan, but one that requires fancy new tech and a huge new infrastructure (much like the many, many, many new doctors, nurses, hospitals, etc., that would be required to administer the longevity treatments, assuming that everybody wants them).
Okay, that's all and well. On the other side is the fuel economy camp: hybrid technology, better aerodynamics, better tires (better grip to frictive energy loss ratio), lighter materials, etc.
As I see it, the hydrogen camp wants little to do with the fuel economy camp. With hydrogen fuel, we don't have the limited supply of fossil fuels, nor the political risks associated therewith, so what's the issue? Hydrogen's virtually unlimited, and with domestic power supplies (wind, solar, nuclear, etc.), the political risks of foreign dependence are mitigated, as is the issue of non-renewables (well, except for nuclear, but fusion's on the way...)
Well, I guess if you've got all the hydrogen in the world, it's not a big issue. But, wouldn't the size/cost of the huge new infrastructure required to put hydrogen into play be reduced considerably if less hydrogen were needed in the first place? And wouldn't it be convenient to drivers if they could drive a lot farther on a tank of H if they get better fuel economy? And given the considerably smaller costs of improving fuel economy, wouldn't it make sense for the hydrogen camp to embrace the ideas of the fuel economy camp? Regardless of whether or not the fuel economy camp thinks that hydrogen fuel is necessary?
So what if Prometheus doesn't like all aspects of SENS. Hey, would it even matter if he thought the idea was plain wrong on all counts? I don't think so. What matters is that he and other scientists are raising a very valid concern, and it wouldn't hurt to add it to SENS. It makes SENS more robust. And luckily, it would A) be one of the cheaper aspects of SENS to research, and B) it's research that will happen in a less ambitious form anyway (e.g. CR mimetics, a more primitive version of what Prometheus and others propose), so the cost would be something borne by the economy, rather than the IBG, to a certain extent.
There's no reason a hydrogen-fuel cell powered car couldn't use regenerative braking to a battery/capacitor, be aerodynamically sleek, have efficient tires, and be very light and strong. Likewise, I don't see why SENS couldn't incorporate some better nuclear DNA management. Sure, it would make the plan even more ambitious, which might make it look like curing aging is harder, and I know de Grey wants to make it clear that curing aging is not incredibly difficult, even if it is fairly difficult.