I'm not a fatalist. I just think that a belief that a solution to all problems lies just around the corner is not very helpful.
Your talking about hope there though. When man sees a technology is possible, it's his instinct to reach out and make it a reality. It is almost instinctual. Most people here see that these technologies are in reach, and they hope that within their lifetimes these new advances will come to pass.
Certainly. I agree with Peter Medawar that, "everything which is in principle possible can be done if the intention to do it is sufficiently resolute." Total control of the biology of aging, and disease generally, is fully consistent with the laws of physics, and therefore doable in principle. Once enough people want it, it will be done.
With respect to time horizons, I speak from the perspective of having told people 30 years ago that a solution to aging was 10 or 15 years in the future. Most of the people I told that to are now dead, and I feel very bad about that.
I remember being especially inspired by this article by Robert Anton Wilson, which interestingly someone has put on the web.
http://www.futurehi....mmortality.htmlNote what was being said in 1978:
Dr. Alex Comfort, generally regarded as the world's leading gerontologist by others in the profession said recently, "If the scientific and medical resources of the United States alone were mobilized, aging would be conquered within a decade." That means most of us have a good chance of living through the Longevity Revolution.
Similarly, Dr. Paul Segall of UC-Berketey predicts that we will be able to raise human lifespan to "400 years or more" by the 1990s. Robert Prehoda, M.D., says in his Extended Youth that we might eventually raise life expectancy to "1,000 years or more." Hundreds of similarly optimistic predictions by researchers currently working in life extension can be found in Albert Rosenfeld's recent book, Prolongevity.
Expert opinion on longevity has grown steadily more optimistic every time it has been surveyed, because the lab results are better every year. In 1964, a group of scientists was polled on the question and predicted chemical control of aging by the early 21st Century. In 1969, two similar polls found scientific opinion predicting longevity would be achieved between 1993 (low estimate) and 2017 (high estimate.) Dr. Bernard Strehler, one of the nation's leading researchers on aging, predicted more recently that the breakthrough would occur sometime between 1981 and 2001.
Robert Anton Wilson is now dead. In fact, with the possible exception of Robert Prehoda,
everyone quoted above is now dead.
On a cheerier note, however near or far these developments are, they are 30 years closer now than then. And it is tremendously gratifying to see a new energetic generation picking up the torch. I only want to caution that the race is still a marathon, not a sprint.