26 replies to this topic

[DJS]

I really enjoyed this easily digestible Bostrom paper. It will totally flip upside down your common intuitions about the desirability of finding evidence of extraterrestrial life.

Where are They? Why I hope the search for extraterrestial life finds nothing.

[forever freedom]

Interesting article. I had thought about that, too. We as a species know so little, it's almost pointless to speculate on this issue. Maybe we're just a species on a post-singularity species zoo or in a posthuman kid's "age of empires" game.

[DJS]

We as a species know so little, it's almost pointless to speculate on this issue.

IMO Bostrom maps out the contingencies nicely. Obviously it's speculative but how, other than by entertain lines of reasoning like this, do you get anywhere on topics like global existential risk?

[Futurist1000]

I really enjoyed this easily digestible Bostrom paper. It will totally flip upside down your common intuitions about the desirability of finding evidence of extraterrestrial life.

Where are They? Why I hope the search for extraterrestial life finds nothing.

I tend to agree with the rare earth hypothesis. I think complex lifeforms may be extremely rare. We're probably the first life forms to get to this technological level.

See rare earth hypothesis wikipedia.


This article is good too; Where are they?

[Ben Simon]

I unfortunately don't have time to read the whole article. Would anyone care to fill me in on the crux of his argument?

[forever freedom]

I unfortunately don't have time to read the whole article. Would anyone care to fill me in on the crux of his argument?

This is what i got skimming through it:

If we find life or signs that life existed in other planets in our solar system > shows us how common life supposedly is > shows that there's indeed a high risk that life always gets extinct sooner or later because otherwise some civilization would have already developed and expanded to the point of contacting us > questions our hopes for the future because there's supposedly a high risk that we are going to, for some reason, become extinct before we are developed enough to explore the universe at a considerably high speed (which in this case should be close to the speed of light)


It's a good theory but i don't dare to reach any speculative conclusion..

Edited by forever freedom, 19 March 2009 - 04:53 PM.

[100YearsToGo]

It is not clear to me that intelligent beings necessarily develop technology. Some budhist monks do not care about technology and we are talking humans here. Galaxy could be full of meditating aliens. Good for us. We can go out and bring ruin upon them.

On the other hand most intelligent aliens may have been killed by the great filter. I don't think the great filter would be a technology that causes autodestruction. Possibly the big filter is a lower life form (a super virus perhaps) that eventually rises through natural selection on every planet that can support life. It is far superior to us, not because of intelligence but because of its survival capability. Thats why the lights are out everywhere we look.

[forever freedom]

On the other hand most intelligent aliens may have been killed by the great filter. I don't think the great filter would be a technology that causes autodestruction. Possibly the big filter is a lower life form (a super virus perhaps) that eventually rises through natural selection on every planet that can support life. It is far superior to us, not because of intelligence but because of its survival capability. Thats why the lights are out everywhere we look.

I think if such a thing happens, it's much more likely that we're the creators of it. But i agree that there may be a few "Great Filters" ahead of us (atomic bombs represent one of those that so far we've managed to beat).

[TianZi]

I receive the Kuzweilai.net newsletter weekly. Within the last 3 months or so, there was an article regarding research published by a well-known astronomer concluding based on new research that radio waves break down over very long distances and so it is not surprising that SETi, etc. has found no evidence of extraterrestrial communications bouncing around in outer space.

I'll see if I can dig up the article in the next day or two.

[niner]

I think that Bostrom makes an error in thinking that advanced life forms will act like primitive humans, or for that matter, like kudzu, or primitive microorganisms. His thought is that all life forms will expand to fill all possible ecological niches, but that hypothesis breaks down when the barriers to expansion become great. It also potentially breaks down when the life form is at a high level of development. I see little reason to expect them to behave like bacteria or primitive humans. Further, it strikes me as possibly naive to expect that advanced life forms will communicate using photons.

[abolitionist]

I think Bostrom assumes that all documented UFO phenomenon is due to either;

1. government activities
2. human imagination

I wonder what he thinks about the disclosure report (perhaps we've already made contact a long time ago).

[TianZi]

OK, I tracked it down. The author of the research paper seems not to be a "well-known astronomer", as I had incorrectly remembered. Here's a blurb discussing the paper:

____________________________

"Enrico Fermi asked a question that has troubled those searching for signals from extraterrestrial civilizations ever since: if the universe is teeming with advanced civilizations (as some solutions to the famous Drake equation would indicate), were are they? (From the physics arXiv blog via Improbable Research.) (Tianzi's note: This is the so-called "Fermi Paradox")

Reginald Smith of the self-established Bouchet-Franklin Institute in Rochester, New York state, says in this paper, submitted to the International Journal of Astrobiology, that something is missing from the calculations: how far a signal from an advanced civilization can travel before it becomes too faint to hear. Factoring that in, he finds that:

“Assuming the average communicating civilization has a lifetime of 1,000 years, ten times longer than Earth has been broadcasting, and has a signal horizon of 1,000 light-years, you need a minimum of over 300 communicating civilization in the galactic neighborhood to reach a minimum density.”

Which means that even if there are a couple of hundred advanced civilizations in our galaxy, it’s quite likely none of them will ever notice the others…and our efforts at searching for extraterrestrial intelligence may be doomed."

_____________________________________________________________

Here's a link to the paper:

http://arxiv.org/PS_...0901.3863v1.pdf

[Imminst = pro murder (omega)]

Heinlein rephrased the Fermi paradox as "Does intelligent life survive its own information explosion?"

I expect one thing we will need to find is recourse to other than top-down fixed hierarchical relationships based on zero-sum game scenarios.

Here is a video of the International Press Release aired on CSPAN that I watched when it first came out of The Disclosure Project. Hard to discount the validity or trustworthiness of the testimonials.

[Imminst = pro murder (omega)]

Here is Seth Shostak, Ph.D., astronomer, SETI Institute, Mountain View, CA in a three part series on the Fermi Paradox, November 2008.

[abolitionist]

I think it's foolish to assume that the government would necessarily be forthcoming with evidence of ET contact.

They would be motivated to cover it up to retain social order and develop technology from this contact to provide dominance.

Edited by abolitionist, 01 April 2009 - 12:37 PM.

[abolitionist]

We only recently found Eris, so I think it's ridiculous to assume that (public science) should be locating them if they exist with current techniques.

Edited by abolitionist, 01 April 2009 - 12:39 PM.

[technetium]

Quick response having just read this paper ( Nick Bostrom's paper )

1. Wouldn't an advanced species with access to the sort of technology refered to as 'Von Neuman Machines' only look to colonise those worlds it actually required? And indeed to have a safeguard to not do anything or just report back on worlds with existing life on in place? Rather then releasing a exponentially self replicating cloud of terraforming machines to run unchecked until they ran out of worlds to terraform galatically. (this idea is absurd)...

Perhaps they only need to terraform several worlds whilst their numbers are growing through breeding, once they achieve immortality I dont imagine the species will spread unchecked as the need to breed would no longer be as essential.

2. Homo Sapiens has only been recorded on this planet for 200,000 years, we could easily have been overlooked many times by probes from advanced civilisations. If indeed life is common in the galaxy then would there be any need to visit every single world where non sentient life only has been detected? We are probably just a footnote in many alien civilisations sella cartography database.

3. If we had recently been visited and our species existance is noted by another civilisation, then unless life is so rare as to make contact inevitable due to our rarity and curiosity on the part of the discovering species, it is likly that we have been ignored at present or are just an anthropologial footnote somewhere until we push ourselves into space.

Edited by technetium, 02 April 2009 - 07:31 PM.

[valkyrie_ice]

Once again, it is the assumption that all life must inevitably expand to fill all available space that I find problematic. Because life evolving on a single planet does so does not mean that a species capable of interstellar travel must do so. We have already come up with such concepts as computronium, why suppose that other civilizations have not done so as well? A planet who's core is computronium need not show a single sign on the surface of intelligent life, indeed they may deliberately choose to leave the surfaces as preserves for recreation or out of simple aesthetics. Nor does a species necessarily need to inhabit only worlds around suns. Perhaps the "Dark Matter" is a vast cloud of computronium. A being living at electronic speeds in a computer might not require the oasis's that life requires to evolve, and quite possibly leaves them alone solely so that life CAN evolve.

Nor do I particularly find much logic in supposing that we must be able to detect their signals. Indeed, a civilization intelligent enough to colonize across light years most likely has technology we would not even recognize. Perhaps they have discovered FTL communications as well as drives. We cannot even prove that tachyons exist. The assumption that an advanced race must use communications technology that we can detect is sheer hubris.

Is there a possibility we have already been contacted? I would say there is a possibility, but considering how much trouble we have accepting EACH OTHER, I do not find it surprising that if such contact has occurred it has been kept secret and classified. The Roddenberry Prime Directive seems to me to be a extremely logical rule any advanced civilization would follow, because any contact with less civilized and technologically advanced races would be likely to result in hostilities on the part of the primitives. We have enough culture clashes between ourselves let alone finding out that other intelligent races exist and have surpassed us long ago. Until such a time as we have achieved a unified world culture and government, or we have reached a technological level where we cannot fail to notice them, or as is possible has happened, an unforeseen occurrence such as a crash occurs, any truly advanced race would most likely do no more than observe our planet. I do not buy into the tales of abduction or experimentation simply because such events seem far too primitive for any species capable of interstellar travel. In all likelihood, if they require samples and analysis, completely undetectable methods of data collection such as sensor dust would be used.

To be honest, I think our search for intelligent life suffers from a severe shortage of creativity on the part of the searchers. If we cannot even accurately predict what life might be like for a greater than human intelligence, how can we predict what such intelligences may have accomplished?

Edited by valkyrie_ice, 02 April 2009 - 10:51 PM.

[technetium]

The only real positive I can find with Nick Bostrom's paper is the debate it is going to stimulate amongst those of us with a more positive outlook on the diversity of the cosmos.

[valkyrie_ice]

Just watched the Disclosure Project video.

First Comment, Considering that GBsr refused to disclose the ufo evidence to Carter, what really made these guys believe that they would have ANY luck getting his son to disclose information???

Second Comment. If taken at face value, the video has some interesting points. If the testimony is to be believed, then we live in a universe where intelligent life is either extremely common, or else we are dealing with a race which assumes a variety of forms. 51 identified variants, all humanoid. To me this says much about either the basic humanoid form being a likely end result of DNA biological evolution, or the possibility that this group of "visitors" limiting contact to humanoid variants.

Third Comment. Seeing some of the "black inventions" such as the casimir well patent which is a zero point energy device in the news, perhaps the cumulative effect of the exposure on the internet of such data is allow the public to access to the means to more or less salvage these items that have been "hidden away" To be honest, I can see where a need existed to hide such information from the public during the war and the cold war, where panic over the possibility of your neighbor being a "commie" fueled such idiocies as the McCarthy hearings. Such secrecy is rapidly becoming pointless though, since the information is gradually finding it's way out of the hands that have held it secret and into a form accessible to the entire world. While still ridiculed and dismissed, the cumulative weight of evidence apparently continues to mount, and it gradually becomes more and more "mainstream". If this evidence it true, and with the credentials of the speakers in the video, at the least a benefit of the doubt must be given to the possibility it is, then our world may be about to undergo a RADICAL shift far sooner than even singularity predictions indicate. Given the refusal of GBsr to disclose, it seems only natural to assume that GBjr would have shared the same vested interest in maintaining the charade. Perhaps in this term or the next one we will see full disclosure.

Fourth Comment. Given the stated technological abilities of the "visitors" it seems quiet obvious that NO AMOUNT OF MILITARY BUILDUP will be successful against their "threat" Given the time frames involved, and the quoted "superluminal" nature of the vessels, if invasion had EVER been intended, it would have been accomplished long ago. Any civilization that spans stars would be able to overwhelm our planet on sheer numbers alone. Even if vessels have been analyzed and reverse engineered, in all likelihood only a tiny fraction of their technology has been accessible. The very HIGH likelihood that such vessels employ technology beyond our ability to even comprehend without superhuman intelligence makes building a defense against them as much of a joke as the shields on the ID4 carriers made the entire arsenal of the world useless. In all probability, such defenses would be as useful as papier mache swords against the metal storm million round a minute weapon.

Fifth Comment: Given the statements made as to several of the species being identical to humans in appearance, not to mention the strong possibility of advanced cosmetic surgery, it seems extremely likely that peaceful aliens would be able to subtly guide the human race away from destructive paths without revealing their presence. This makes it quite possible that the reason we have so far failed to destroy ourselves is due to active alien preventive measures. Always assuming that an aggressor species would not allow a species it planned to destroy to progress to the point of danger, the assumption of non aggression seems to have a higher probability of truth given the failure of our planet to have been invaded, destroyed, or openly contacted in the period of supposed alien contact. In a sense this seems to actually improve the odds for mankind's eventual peaceful future. Active alien guidance by what must be assumed to be greater than human intelligence leads to the strong possibility that the odds of the singularity occurring within or before projected timelines is raised significantly.

All of these suppositions do indeed rest on the assumption of truth in the statements made by the video, but the possibilities do raise some very intriguing questions.

[TianZi]

As regards The Disclosure Project, color me interested but skeptical. It says something that a press conference for this Project was hosted by the National Press Club. However, the account by the former (?) US Army sergeant that he'd visited many UFO crash sites, and cataloged many dozens of different alien species, is hard to credit. I have troubles wrapping my brain around scads of unbelievably advanced alien species all regularly crashing here. Are they "driving drunk", or what?

Edited by TianZi, 05 April 2009 - 09:21 AM.

[valkyrie_ice]

As regards The Disclosure Project, color me interested but skeptical. It says something that a press conference for this Project was hosted by the National Press Club. However, the account by the former (?) US Army sergeant that he'd visited many UFO crash sites, and cataloged many dozens of different alien species, is hard to credit. I have troubles wrapping my brain around scads of unbelievably advanced alien species all regularly crashing here. Are they "driving drunk", or what?

Two thoughts occurred to me on that subject as well. One, how many "crashes" were the result of action taken by earth military forces. And two, considering our own theories about uploading, artificial bodies, and greater than human intelligence, how many 'crashes" were the planned action of a group "encouraging" specific developments?

We would be hard pressed to view deliberate sacrifice of individuals as non-accidental, yet if we give aliens credit for as much ingenuity as we humans have, why would sacrificing an organic or semi organic terminal interface for a uploaded entity be thought of as more than we would think of a pawn in chess?

I think the evidence is building slowly, and more convincingly as time and the internet begins to drag more and more into the light.

[technetium]

An additional 'little rant'...

I've spent a little time reading more of Bostom's papers and suffice to say I get the impression that academics are still working within a vacuum. There really does need to be more cross discipline collaboration. Aubrey de Grey has stated before that his own work is often overlooked by many professional biologists because they are used to working in a really narrow specialism and can't see the bigger picture in terms of engineering a cell. Bostom and his colleagues at the Future of Humanity institute could do with applying the same multidiciplinary approach to the topics they discuss as Aubrey has to the SENS projects. Even more so that they are discussing philisophical arguments where multiple scientific disciplines have valuable input. I've just read a synopsis of a workshop Bostom lead where he says that "Risks from biological terrorist attack are moderate today, but they are likely to increase in the future. For instance, with the wider distribution of machines capable of replicating DNA, it was more likely people could make stocks of nearly-extinct deadly viruses, such as small pox, or invent entirely new ones." Had he spoken to any of his colleagues in Virology or indeed even picked up a basic undergrad textbook on the subject he could have found out that the only two known surviving samples of small pox are stored in VECTOR (RUS) and CDC (US) viral containment labs. Terrorists, if they did decide to deploy a biological weapon, would undoubtedly not be looking at small pox as their viral pathogen of choice. It's little mistakes like this which alienate readers from outside their own discipline reading papers and publications from the ideas they are presenting, before they even get onto the bigger arguments such as whether the risk of biological attack from terrorism is 'moderate' today at all. Perhaps had he also had a discussion with someone working in the field of counter terrorism such as Louise Richardson at the University of St Andrews or indeed colleagues at his own University who are but an email away, we might have had a more succinct arguement presented that would appeal to people from other disciplines or indeed the lay readers.

I think what I am trying to say is that whoever you are, if you work within an academic specialism, its all too easy to operate in isolation. We need more people who think like Aubrey in all the respective academic fields.

Edited by technetium, 09 April 2009 - 08:54 AM.

[technetium]

As regards The Disclosure Project, color me interested but skeptical. It says something that a press conference for this Project was hosted by the National Press Club. However, the account by the former (?) US Army sergeant that he'd visited many UFO crash sites, and cataloged many dozens of different alien species, is hard to credit. I have troubles wrapping my brain around scads of unbelievably advanced alien species all regularly crashing here. Are they "driving drunk", or what?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Pope - Much more informative and I believe to be a more realistic viewpoint of what is 'known' about UFO's... e.g. that they are real in terms of being spotted on radar and we have tried to intercept them but thats as far as it has got. That's from the former official Air Force officer (UK) responsible for dealing with UFO/RAF air contacts.

I very much doubt this former US Army Sergeant you mention is credible. If we had that many UFO's crashing that there were literally dozens of documented species cadavers being recovered, it would be impossible for a small group of 'in the know' airforce or military personnel to get to a crash site, recover the lot etc before anyone else obtained samples for examination and blew the whole thing to the world wide press.

Edited by technetium, 09 April 2009 - 09:01 AM.

[valkyrie_ice]

As regards The Disclosure Project, color me interested but skeptical. It says something that a press conference for this Project was hosted by the National Press Club. However, the account by the former (?) US Army sergeant that he'd visited many UFO crash sites, and cataloged many dozens of different alien species, is hard to credit. I have troubles wrapping my brain around scads of unbelievably advanced alien species all regularly crashing here. Are they "driving drunk", or what?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Pope - Much more informative and I believe to be a more realistic viewpoint of what is 'known' about UFO's... e.g. that they are real in terms of being spotted on radar and we have tried to intercept them but thats as far as it has got. That's from the former official Air Force officer (UK) responsible for dealing with UFO/RAF air contacts.

I very much doubt this former US Army Sergeant you mention is credible. If we had that many UFO's crashing that there were literally dozens of documented species cadavers being recovered, it would be impossible for a small group of 'in the know' airforce or military personnel to get to a crash site, recover the lot etc before anyone else obtained samples for examination and blew the whole thing to the world wide press.

I don't make any claims as to the credibility of any particular individual in the disclosure video, I am simply discussing the possibilities that result IF their stories are true. The sheer number of witnesses and the various ranks and positions held requires a minimum level of giving them the benefit of the doubt. However, more evidence than just testimony alone would be required to PROVE the actuality of alien contact.

Regardless, enough evidence exists to establish that SOMETHING is occurring, whether that is Alien craft being caught on radar, secret government prototypes using the Electrogravitic systems created by T Townsend Brown, or simple radar ghosts,which creates a need to investigate further. Too much evidence of various kinds does exist on the internet, and the volume of availability of this evidence is slowly increasing. Yes, far too much is still presented by fringe groups, but more and more of it is slowly coming from more credible sources. We know all too well that our government does not always know what all of it's various pieces are doing, or things such as Iran/Contra would have never occurred, but more evidence of secret doings is coming to light. I would think the possibility of alien contact should be further investigated, and either be completely disproved by exposure of the secret prototypes, reproducible explanations of the radar sightings if they are "ghosts", or disclosure of the actual evidence of aliens if it exists.

Regardless, it does not change the fact that until our technology improves, we may be completely unable to detect the existence of a far more advanced culture using technology which we cannot as yet even imagine. Simply based on this fact alone, belief that we are the sole intelligent race in the universe seems a bit too much like the religious belief in mankind's central place in creation updated to new terminology.

[lbarber4]

They are interdimensional, thus we can not see them, unless we access a higher dimension, then we can see them. Sounds crazy, but based on my own experiences, I know it to be true. If you want to find out for yourself, meditate, raise your vibrations, but most importantly, let go of your fear, conquer it. Laugh, love, find peace within yourself and no, one does not need a drug to ascend their consciousness. But mainly, it all has to do with fear (stay focused, stay relaxed)- - that is what I reiterate to myself on a continual basis, but the fact is, many are not ready to be revealed the truth about the existence of ET life because of fear. Science will prove the existence of other dimensions in due time, but humanity needs a serious wake up call. We need to conquer our fears and find peace within ourselves and in each other and if we're able to accomplish this, we'll spark the right note and ascend our consciousness. But any who, I probably sound crazy and I'm okay with that, but in all the experiences I've had, it all has to do with fear. It is highly important that we conquer our fears and accept love and peace! The problem is we live in a world riddled with problems and there are many people out there who do not care out about their fellow citizen. I wasn't aware of a lot of this stuff until a few years back, when I had this spontaneous OBE and was overwhelmed with this feeling of unconditional love. It completely changed my outlook on life. Just imagine, if all of humanity were to feel that or if you, yourself, were to feel unconditionally loved by the universe. At my age, to have stumbled upon some of this stuff, it's amazing and to be honest, I would love if I could invent something that would send out this frequency so that everyone can be overwhelmed with unconditional love. But any who, they exist, I can't prove to you they exist, but if I could, I would. All I can tell you is, meditate and find out for yourself in regards to the existence of other dimensions. If you encounter an ET, stay focused and stay relaxed, that is the key! Well, any who, just thought I'd share that... It's okay if you don't believe me, but science will prove the existence of other dimensions! When, I can't say for sure, but I'm working on proving to my family that this stuff is real.

Edited by lbarber4, 13 April 2009 - 09:59 AM.

[Imminst = pro murder (omega)]

The Real British X-Files http://x-journals.co...ritish-x-files/