39 replies to this topic

[PhilOssifur]

There are two views on the USDollar. One view is that its destruction won't affect cryonics. The other is that it will destroy cryonics. Should the collar be defended? How?

[forever freedom]

I don't see what the USD has to do with anything. If you're talking about a total US economic collapse, that's another story. The USD will only collapse if the economy of the US totally collapses -it's very hard for the USD to collapse before the US's economy. So i don't see your point and why you place so much importance on just the USD. Maybe that's why no one answered you; they don't see the point either.

Edited by forever freedom, 03 April 2009 - 07:38 PM.

[PhilOssifur]

I don't see what the USD has to do with anything. If you're talking about a total US economic collapse, that's another story. The USD will only collapse if the economy of the US totally collapses -it's very hard for the USD to collapse before the US's economy. So i don't see your point and why you place so much importance on just the USD. Maybe that's why no one answered you; they don't see the point either.

So you think the US economy is ok, do you?

[forever freedom]

I don't see what the USD has to do with anything. If you're talking about a total US economic collapse, that's another story. The USD will only collapse if the economy of the US totally collapses -it's very hard for the USD to collapse before the US's economy. So i don't see your point and why you place so much importance on just the USD. Maybe that's why no one answered you; they don't see the point either.

So you think the US economy is ok, do you?

Of course not, but why are you focusing on the USD? Shouldn't the title of your topic be something like "What do you think will happen to the cryonics companies if the economy totally collapses?"?

[PhilOssifur]

So you think the US economy is ok, do you?
[/quote]


Of course not, but why are you focusing on the USD? Shouldn't the title of your topic be something like "What do you think will happen to the cryonics companies if the economy totally collapses?"?
[/quote]

I'm thinking more about the savings accounts of cryonicists at the moment. That's why I'm zeroing in on the USD. With the bailouts, including the G20 trillion dollar commiotment and no end int site to money pumping, that alone will lead to hyperinflation, leading to our savings accounts evaporating. What do you think of the bailouts? Won't that alone wipe out the USD?

Update 20 minutes later-- I see 58 have now viewed this thread with ONE contributor-- who is 21 years old who never took an economics or history course. This is discouraging. For guys who say they want immortality who don't understand the role of the USD-- it's incredible. Obviously Pizer, Miller, Laughlin, Ken/Faloon and other wealthy cryonicists consider USD important enough to accumulate high net worth-- yet here we see a dismissal of USD concerns by 58 Imminst.com BJKlein fans. This will be big news with Wired magazine when I submit my new article suggestion to them.

What's funny to me too-- in an ironic way-- is that below this post are ads for more on a global currency to repalce the US currency and other related topics. The other interesting thing here is that there are so mnay guys online and that I've had 58 viewers in probably less than an hour. I've invnted cryonet readers to this thread, so wel'll see if unperson shows up soon to continue his ridicule of me. I'm signed up for alcor by the way.

Edited by PhilOssifur, 03 April 2009 - 08:27 PM.

[PhilOssifur]

We're up to 65 views-- is this UNIQUE visitors or repeated viewing by the same people? Anyone know?

[forever freedom]

So you think the US economy is ok, do you?

Of course not, but why are you focusing on the USD? Shouldn't the title of your topic be something like "What do you think will happen to the cryonics companies if the economy totally collapses?"?

I'm thinking more about the savings accounts of cryonicists at the moment. That's why I'm zeroing in on the USD. With the bailouts, including the G20 trillion dollar commiotment and no end int site to money pumping, that alone will lead to hyperinflation, leading to our savings accounts evaporating. What do you think of the bailouts? Won't that alone wipe out the USD?

I'm glad you finally took the trouble of making your question clear enough to deserve an elaborate answer.

That's possible; no one knows yet how big of a hit the USD will take with all these bailouts and money printings... but diversifying your investments is always a wise strategy to consider. You have to decide the amoung of risk you're willing to take and then decide how much faith you're willing to place on the USD.

Update 20 minutes later-- I see 58 have now viewed this thread with ONE contributor-- who is 21 years old who never took an economics or history course. This is discouraging. For guys who say they want immortality who don't understand the role of the USD-- it's incredible. Obviously Pizer, Miller, Laughlin, Ken/Faloon and other wealthy cryonicists consider USD important enough to accumulate high net worth-- yet here we see a dismissal of USD concerns by 58 Imminst.com BJKlein fans. This will be big news with Wired magazine when I submit my new article suggestion to them.

Do you realize that your completely unbased personal attack on me (and then following on imminst) makes it apparent that you're not much more -if at all- mature than me, making the attack totally ridiculous since showing that i was immature was the objective of the attack?






edit: goddamnit these quote system problems..

Edited by forever freedom, 03 April 2009 - 09:03 PM.

[PhilOssifur]

but diversifying your investments is always a wise strategy to consider. You have to decide the amoung of risk you're willing to take and then decide how much faith you're willing to place on the USD.

Wouldn't it be better if the money pumping stopped and interest rates raised?

[PhilOssifur]

One more thing-- the money pumping by the fed will destroy the USdollar which will then have the EFFECT of bringing the USA down as a country, and of bringing down the world since the USdolalr is still the reserve currency.

Imminst.org readers are not worth the time I've spend here today. I recommend you all read Larouche. feed://www.larouchepac.com/header/views/5/feed

Consider yourselves all the dupes of the British empire. It's that simple. None of you know your American history or world history. You'll never be immortal that way.

[tunt01]

ok. here is my dollar reply. my first quick reply got deleted cuz i hit refresh too fast after i entered it in.

here is a more thoughtful reply. i have worked in the hedge fund industry for better than 8 years now and spent a lot of time on this issue, real estate valuation and the US economy's future over the last three years.

Prophets is 33, and looks to be from UK.... so no hope there.

i am not from England, but my family's roots are from there. i am a born/bred American (though I may leave the US and head to the Hong Kong/APAC region).

There are two views on the USDollar. One view is that its destruction won't affect cryonics. The other is that it will destroy cryonics. Should the collar be defended? How?

The industry's economics being altered by a change in the dollar seems unlikely to me on the face of it, unless the costs involved are very sensitive to commodity prices. That is, if cryogenics was looking to be a damaged business and literally running off the rails as an industry in the spring of 2008, when oil was $100+ and gas per gallon in the US was ripping above $4.00, then I would say ok maybe there is some basis there for the argument. I don't know how cryogenics is priced, what the input chemicals are, or how the cost of storing a frozen person's body parts is broken out into input costs. If energy is a major part of storage costs and thats what people are paying for in cryogenics, then it's quite likely through carbon taxes (cap and trade) and the rising cost of commodities over the next 5+ years, that it will be come more costly. But I think at some point, people will pay any amount of money for anything so I doubt it goes away entirely.

One more thing-- the money pumping by the fed will destroy the USdollar which will then have the EFFECT of bringing the USA down as a country, and of bringing down the world since the USdolalr is still the reserve currency.

Imminst.org readers are not worth the time I've spend here today. I recommend you all read Larouche. feed://www.larouchepac.com/header/views/5/feed

Consider yourselves all the dupes of the British empire. It's that simple. None of you know your American history or world history. You'll never be immortal that way.

A lot of the federal reserve's programs (currency swaps, etc.) will unwind naturally and liquidity will automatically drain out of the system based on the nature of the programs. It is very clear that we will have some inflation, whether or not it is sustained depends on their desire to monetize Obama's spending plans into the future. The dollar will not disappear as a reserve currency anytime soon. It may occur over the next decade, and that's a reality of the global economy just as much as it is the US having a distorted balance of payments.

I think your snotty, childish viewpoint kind of falls flat when you fail to look at the flipside of who has foolishly put all their money into US Dollars. It's the Chinese, the Japanese. 50%+ of the US Debt is in foreigners hands and they will be left holding the bag. So thanks for the free money China, we partied hard and although we don't have much to show for it, you are going to eat it because your savings are worthless. And that's why we have a continued positive spread of dividends and income coming from our foreign investments into the US, while we pay substantially less to foreigners who keep buying our debt.





Above here is the foreign inflows of money in billions of USD to purchase US government debt (not GSEs, not corporate bonds, just our government's debt) against the value of the US Dollar on a trade weighted basis. I have excluded what US people are doing. The data comes from the TIC report provided by US Treasury Dept. and the H.10 Currency Series from the Federal Reserve. The data might look better if I displayed it on a rolling 12 month basis, but this data here is the per month activity so realize that effects are cumulative.

As you can see we had a panic in late '08 based on the global financial crisis and foreign money flew into the US Dollar assets (US Govt Bonds) and the dollar's value rose sharply in concert with it. The dollar had been slowly declining overtime otherwise, even as we've had steady purchases of US government bonds. Clearly we are on the verge of a downtick (reversion to the mean?) in the value of the dollar and I think it's pretty obvious that money is going to come out of dollar assets.

But again, all this ignores where this money is coming from and if China is going to manipulate their currency for the sake of a policy goal, then you have to realize the game is rigged and they are going to eat it in their own savings. You can store all the dollars in the world in your coffers, but then when the federal reserve kills its value, your savings become worthless, but guess what? Our exports surge in value and our economic opportunity as a country improves materially. We become a more competitive nation and the balance of the situation in the US becomes tilted towards a manufacturing economy once again rather than people on Wall St. who shuffle pieces of paper (stocks, bonds) around for export to foreign entities.

In the end it will depend on innovation, growth rate in the populous, and that is the real issue facing the US. The debt is a problem, but declining productivity rates and a declining growth in the population is just as serious a problem. It is a multifaceted issue that isn't as easily grasp by a bunch of pro-Ron Paul internutters.

Edited by prophets, 04 April 2009 - 12:03 AM.

[benbest]

I am concerned about the state of the economy and where
the economy is going, as most reasonable people (and
cryonicists) are. I have summarized my own views of the
source of the current economic crisis in an essay I posted
to CryoNet. It has undergone a number of revisions since then:

http://www.benbest.c...le.html#housing

I am concerned about the massive pumping of dollars
by the Federal Reserve into the economy and I am
concerned about the massive deficit spending that
is being used by the United States government in
the belief that this will stimulate the economy.

Reflecting our concern about the US Dollar,
in January the Cryonics Institute moved a portion
of its investments into ADRs, specifically, Asian,
European and Emerging Market ADRs:

http://finance.yahoo...A...IXIC&c=^DJI

http://finance.yahoo...A...IXIC&c=^DJI

http://finance.yahoo...A...IXIC&c=^DJI

as well as into some gold mining stock. Cryonics
Institute Treasurer Pat Heller owns a coin business,
Liberty Coin Service

http://www.libertycoinservice.com/

and Pat was recommending long before the crisis that CI
put more of its investment capital into gold. I have
fiercely opposed gold as a long-term investment, but
if we had heeded his advice we would have avoided
some serious losses last Fall. CI is still financially
sound, but 2008 was a bad year for most investments.

http://www.cryonics....financials.html

I still think gold is a bad long-term investment, but
I am thinking that gold might be a good idea as a hedge
against possible price inflation in the next couple of years.

I am more concerned about price inflation than I am about
the US Dollar. The main reason that I don't think that
the US Dollar is going to fall too far is that most
of the other governments of the world are pursuing
the same policies as the US government -- massive
money pumping by central banks and "stimulus" spending
financed by ballooning deficits. So the problem would
not be that the US Dollar is falling against other
currencies so much as that all currencies are being
inflated in tandem. (Austrian definition of inflation
-- expanded money supply, not necessarily rising prices.)

Price inflation could be very devastating for
cryonics, primarily because the vast majority of
cryonicists have funded their cryopreservation
contracts with life insurance policies, which have
fixed payouts. Alcor has had a policy of grandfathering
their prices for existing members when they increase
their prices. CI has not increased prices, but if
inflation becomes severe it will be necessary to
do so. CI does not have a policy of grandfathering,
and is not necessarily committed to grandfathering
prices. It has long been my hope that economies
of scale would allow CI to never raise prices, but
if severe price inflation strikes, it may become
necessary.

Price inflation would not necessarily threaten
our ability to care for existing patients, because
the value of our investments would be expected to
inflate as much as the costs of patient care. It
is the Members funded by insurance and the
economy that may suffer.

The Federal Reserve claims that if there is a
recovery that all the money it has pumped into
the economy can be quickly withdrawn so as to
avoid price inflation. But with the massive deficits
there will be strong temptation to "monetize the
debt" and allow price inflation to occur. On
the other hand, if the recession continues for
a long time (like the "lost decade" in Japan)
there may be no price inflation, just a miserable
economy.

I wish my crystal ball was better than it
is. The best I can do is try to consider the
possibilities and consider what might be required
under the circumstances. As I said earlier, the Cryonics
Institute is still in a financially sound state, but the
economy has given many of us many things to
worry about.

-- Ben Best

[tunt01]

i looked at your balance sheet from '08. i personally would not own any US Treasuries.

gold is one route. it's a decent hedge. you could own commodity geared currencies like the australian dollar or canadian loon, as well.

another way to go, but more risky is to buy equities (stocks) that are tied to non-dollar end markets. even if you buy intel, with 80% of the revenues in non-US dollar end markets, you will probably come out ok. the rest of the world is going to have to buy PCs for the next 20+ years and it's one of the few high value propositions the US offers. equities are more inflation oriented than bonds, becuz the upside in earnings is unlimited whereas the payout in a fixed life insurance/debt contract is capped out.

we'll have some inflation, but it will be beneficial over the long term. I don't think a lot of countries are going to follow the US... it's more of a US dollar debt problem to be inflated away, than any other currency.

[PhilOssifur]

Ordinary regular cryonicists with just savings accounts are screwed I guess.

Mark Plus indicated that he hasn't seen any inflationary effect "yet"-- not understanding that inflation is about to take place based on the continued bailouts and latest Geitner plans. The savings accounts of ordinary people are in USdollars.... and that must be protected. No Imminst.org poster or reader apparently understands that which indicates to me that there is a kind of effectively collective insanity here.

FreedomFighter says China, holding USD, is screwed and they'll have to eat it-- when the dollar crashes-- not commenting on the destruction in China that will result. He maintains a British posture, effectively. IT has always been British intent to break up China, not to mention the USA. Destruction of the dollar, and the physical economy of the USA has been how they have effectively "finally done it".

The social chaos in the USA if the bailouts continue and the dollar hyperinflates- as in Germany in 1923- will result in ordinary cryoncisits dropping their cryonics memberships, except for the very well of people in cryonics who apparently seem to think that they can survive the coming chaos no matter what... consistent with a false survival of the fittest idea applied to human beings-- a fallacy that ignores the idea that humans are not animals--

Money is a medium of exchange as well as a store of value. Ordinary cryonicists still use the USD as a store of value in savings accounts without "hedging" in various things and expect the US Government to defend the value of the dollar-- as do citizens of other nation states expect THEIR respective governements to defend their currencies. The ULTIMATE currency defense system for nations was the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate agreeement-- which should be put back into place-- along with the Glass-Steagal Act which separated investment banking from chartered banking-- protecting people's savings accounts.

As a Larouche reader since 2000, I can safely say for the benefit of Imminst.org readers and posters here, including Ben Best-- that you're all voicing comments consistent with the acceptanace of the MONETARY ATTACK now taking place by the financial sector-- controlled by the British-- the City of London-- whose pawn is Larry Summers who Obama listens to every morning-- because Obama doesn't know any better. No Imminst.org reader here has located the source of the American success after WWII or even the success during the FDR years. Imminst has effectively been brainwashed-- by the Wall St. financiers into thinking that they can survive a dollar destruction. Well, nobody will survive a dollar destruction. And certainly cryonics won't. No currency will survive a dollar destruction.

Ultimately, if this process is allowed to continue (which it won't-- since "we" are now lining up a China/US/Russia/India 4 power agreement for a new FDR Bretton Woods-- and a firing of Larry Summers as a British asset. Ben Best thinks he's pretty clever going to "ASDs"-- but do CI members even understand those? I don't think so. Ordinary CI members still depend on the USDollar and full faith and credit of the US Government. Only the GLOBALISTS who are effectively imperialists use the semantic frame of hedging as seen in the above answers... and the ANTI-THESIS to globalism is... national sovereignty-- and that includes sovereign currrencies-- working in a framework of fixed exchange rates.

I didn't EXPECT anyone in Imminst.org to "get the answer right". I'm a glutton for punishment I guess. But I also posted the original question -- does cryonics require defense of the dollar"-- as a test-- just to see what the mindset is here. It's astonishing to see how many views I got within an hour... and within 12 hours. Most of you do not respond however-- and so it's like walking into a dark room filled with zombies.. with an occasional lunatic coming up to the microphone in the spotlight... and everyone who spoke voices views consistent with continued bailouts, inflation, dollar destruction and ruin-- thinking cryonicists and cryonics can survive.

I even got a few private emails from Mark Plus and Unperson on this matter where they joke about "owning" me-- I supposed as a slave.... humor which alludes to British slavery practises and an Orwellian future... as if joking about the USD without serious comment is appropriate. All of this type of feedback CONFIRMS to me that the worldview shared here is British and oligarchical... that the Imminst.org people are effectively pawns-- quite possibly operating under gatekeepers and British agencies, with no understanding of the difference between the British monetary system-- which has failed and is bankrupt due to the quadrillions in derivatives-- and the American public credit system-- which is the only thing that can rescue the world now.

Physical immortality based on sovereign nation-state currencies operating within a fixed exchange rate system with a certain level of protectionism for the actual neccessary industries for each nation-state is the only way to go-- otherwise the British-- who you all are minions of-- will turn the earth into a giant plantation and depopulate it to about 1 billion. A few of you mentioned the "US ECONOMY" without reference to the PHYSICAL aspect of the economy that "we" are going to put back into place without which not only will you not have physical immortality, but without which you won't even have a normal lifespan... but that's another issue for another post.

For a completely different way of formatting this thread, see this...

www.network54.com/Forum/639340/message/1238843934/USDOLLAR--+Does+cryonics+require+defense+of+the+dollar

It'll remain open for a day or two or threee, or until I close it again for the time being. Threading is a better way to view discussions like this. Imminst.org never learned how to do that. As well, note that I used a KEYWORD at the beginning of my subject line which enables you to find this post alphabetically-- given the software here-- which Imminst.org users never did learn to work. Oh well. Intelligence is in the brain of the beholder I guess.

Edited by PhilOssifur, 04 April 2009 - 12:09 PM.

[tunt01]

a bunch of rambling incongruent shit

well i thought you were a little nuts based on your first posting, but this last one pretty much sealed the deal. i hope you leave the US as soon as possible, for the sake of the rest of the country's inhabitants.

- I seriously doubt you will see social unrest in the US like you have seen in Europe or potentially Asia.
- The US is a pretty efficient capitalist system. I don't see why you think Europe and other countries would have a better LT future, outside of our massive debt problem. But capital is reallocated here pretty efficiently. Our productivity has historically been very high compared to other countries, though that will obviously moderate.
- I don't get your point about Bretton Woods and why we have to go back to it. We have been on a Bretton-Woods accord. PIMCO and others have been calling this BWII, where China and petrostates (GCC/Saudi Arabia) have a fixed exchange rate to the US Dollar. This fixed exchange rate is the cause of the massive inflows of capital to the US that has distorted our balance of payments. If anything, we need China to float their currency and get AWAY from Bretton Woods. You seem to argue to the contrary, which is pretty much insane.
- Glass Steagal was probably a little too much deregulation, but it really isn't that big a deal if you have the regulators in place to manage the commercial/investment banking entities in their risk taking. If you've ever worked at a bank, you would know this. It's pretty obviously why Goldman Sachs didn't blow up and Lehman did, they managed their risk and knew what they were doing.
- You seem to completely ignore the fact that most pension funds and US investors have put a lot of their investment overseas in Non-US assets. The data shows that US investors have made superior decisions to go overseas and earn an attractive return while foreigners continue to buy worthless US debt. Why don't you take into account foreign holdings by US citizens into your viewpoint of the country's future?

I also don't get your constant harping on the British. It's kind of random.




The British pound has lost 25-30% against the US dollar. It has done terribly and they have worse problems in some ways than the US does. How the hell is Larry Summers or Tim Geithner an agent for these guys? And how exactly has Britain out manuevered the US in any way, shape, or form?

The balance of payment issue is 100% China/Petrostates (GCC/Saudi Arabia). It has nothing to do with the UK. The UK is a waning economic influence.


You rant and rave about your brain and take a shit on everyone here. Why don't you try your luck in the currency markets then? If you are so smart, I'm sure people will throw money at you to invest on their behalf, cuz you apparently know so god damn much! Then you and this nutball Larouche can take over the world! Won't that be fabulous !

didn't EXPECT anyone in Imminst.org to "get the answer right". I'm a glutton for punishment I guess. But I also posted the original question -- does cryonics require defense of the dollar"-- as a test-- just to see what the mindset is here. It's astonishing to see how many views I got within an hour... and within 12 hours. Most of you do not respond however-- and so it's like walking into a dark room filled with zombies.. with an occasional lunatic coming up to the microphone in the spotlight... and everyone who spoke voices views consistent with continued bailouts, inflation, dollar destruction and ruin-- thinking cryonicists and cryonics can survive.

- If you think there is any 'perfect' right answer in this environment. You are deluded.
- Only myself and one or two others are stupid enough to waste their time w/ a rambling idiot like yourself on a serious issue. You've shown little to no evidence, fact, numerical or otherwise that you know what you are talking about.
- I see no reason to believe that an industry like cryonics will completely fail, just because the US has economic issues. You've presented no information that shows a relationship between the financial future of this specific little industry and the future of the US economy/dollar. Just a bunch of screaming and ranting about the dollar... we're all going to hell... blah blah. OK, so we got some problems, but it's dangerous to sell America short. The outlook for some industries like beef export and semiconductors is very bright.
- wtf is talking about bailouts, inflation, dollar destruction? where is your analysis? "I know this guy named Larouche he says US is doomed!!!!!!!!111" Yea well Blue Horseshoe Loves America.

Edited by prophets, 04 April 2009 - 12:54 PM.

[benbest]

i looked at your balance sheet from '08. i personally would not own any US Treasuries.

The money that is in US Treasuries is the pre-paid funds. The Board recently
decided to switch all of that money into short-term CDs, invested in different
banks so as to be FDIC insured. It will take a couple of months to complete
this move of about a million dollars in prepaid funds. This should provide
some modest return along with inflation protection.

gold is one route. it's a decent hedge. you could own commodity geared currencies like the australian dollar or canadian loon, as well.

another way to go, but more risky is to buy equities (stocks) that are tied to non-dollar end markets. even if you buy intel, with 80% of the revenues in non-US dollar end markets, you will probably come out ok. the rest of the world is going to have to buy PCs for the next 20+ years and it's one of the few high value propositions the US offers. equities are more inflation oriented than bonds, becuz the upside in earnings is unlimited whereas the payout in a fixed life insurance/debt contract is capped out.

I mentioned our ADRs. Our ADRs are essentially stock index funds denominated in
foreign currencies.

http://en.wikipedia....ositary_Receipt

we'll have some inflation, but it will be beneficial over the long term. I don't think a lot of countries are going to follow the US... it's more of a US dollar debt problem to be inflated away, than any other currency.

Beneficial for the government with its massive deficits, but not for the economy.
European governments are following suit with massive monetary pumping. Germany
and France, at least, are opposed to deficit spending "stimulus", and China has been
very modest in following this path. China and Brazil seem to be doing OK financially,
relatively speaking, and CI owns a Brazil stock index.

http://online.wsj.co...DWORLDSTXQ10309

[caston]

I'm expecting strong CPI inflation, high unemployment and deflation in the price of capital assets

Edited by caston, 04 April 2009 - 04:02 PM.

[tunt01]

I'm expecting strong CPI inflation, high unemployment and deflation in the price of capital assets

In some ways deflation of all capital assets is incorrect. If there is strong inflation, the cost of reproducing or creating some capital assets will rise materially and their value on a replacement basis rises.

If you build a chemical complex that processes oil into ethylene and its derivatives today at level of pricing where steel, labor, construction, and all input costs are lower. The value of the factory could rise tomorrow, when these input costs rise and inflation is experienced.

Obviously you can suffer from operating income risks, but you would want to build it in an area where there is high future demand (GDP) like APAC vs. lower nominal demand (US/Western. Europe). This assumes supply/demand is in balance and blah blah blah.

But fundamentally, not all assets will decline in value on a real basis.

Edited by prophets, 04 April 2009 - 04:07 PM.

[PhilOssifur]

Doesn't anyone here have JUST a savings account, a chequing account and maybe a small credit card? -- with NO "investments"-- ???

[caston]

I'm expecting strong CPI inflation, high unemployment and deflation in the price of capital assets

In some ways deflation of all capital assets is incorrect. If there is strong inflation, the cost of reproducing or creating some capital assets will rise materially and their value on a replacement basis rises.

If you build a chemical complex that processes oil into ethylene and its derivatives today at level of pricing where steel, labor, construction, and all input costs are lower. The value of the factory could rise tomorrow, when these input costs rise and inflation is experienced.

Obviously you can suffer from operating income risks, but you would want to build it in an area where there is high future demand (GDP) like APAC vs. lower nominal demand (US/Western. Europe). This assumes supply/demand is in balance and blah blah blah.

But fundamentally, not all assets will decline in value on a real basis.

So why are we getting CPI inflation despite falling commodity prices?

In terms of capital assets I was more thinking about existing houses and business premises. Building costs may have dropped because of the falling demand for labor.
The number of people able and willing to borrow large sums to money to buy these assets has shrunk.

The upward trend for house prices appear to have gained most of its momentum in the 70's when the baby boomers were new home owners. The baby boomers are now selling up
their houses and moving into smaller places, to later move into retirement villages and graveyards just like their parents are now.

http://reiwa.com/res...aph-display.cfm

The gen X and gen Y ers aren't going to keep artificially pumping up the housing market even if they willing used all their effort to do so. Those that didn't get sucked in by the first home buyers grant and take out loan they otherwise wouldn't have been able and end up in more a magnitude more debt that the buyers grant gave them won't be fooled by the dying baby boomers telling them "how houses are such a good investment".

Edited by caston, 05 April 2009 - 03:36 AM.

[niner]

PhillOssifer, you owe this forum an apology for your bad manners, coming in here and demanding an immediate response from us. We aren't here to serve you. You are lucky that prophets and ben best gave you the benefit of their expertise. Your premise is the typical LaRouchian nonsense about how the world is going to hell, blah blah blah. That is just an excuse to avoid actually thinking and learning about what's really going on. I could address the issue of the USD, but frankly, I don't feel like it in light of your boorish behavior.

[PhilOssifur]

PhillOssifer, you owe this forum an apology for your bad manners, coming in here and demanding an immediate response from us. We aren't here to serve you. You are lucky that prophets and ben best gave you the benefit of their expertise. Your premise is the typical LaRouchian nonsense about how the world is going to hell, blah blah blah. That is just an excuse to avoid actually thinking and learning about what's really going on. I could address the issue of the USD, but frankly, I don't feel like it in light of your boorish behavior.

Please don't take my insults as insults. I don't mean to be boorish-- as you call it. Let me apologize then. I have a position on the matter and I'm astonished to find that not a single immortalist sees it my way. Please give me your take on the USD. And I'll try to reform my method and style instantly... I sometimes forget that my personality doesn't come through completely-- if it did, you would find that I've got a nice sense of humor and that I'm encouraging to everyone around me...

I'm not here merely to ask "does cryonics require defense of the dollar". I'm here to deliver a message-- that I can verify is true... not becaues I believe Larouche uncritically, but because my background confirms that larouche has it right-- that the defense of the USD is important to the world-- that the alternative is Browns IMF special drawing rights-- and world currency which destroys the entire nation-state system... and to "test" imminst.org members on their understanding of that.

Let's look at this thread in a little bit of a different way. Let's look at a thread as a classroom. The guy who starts the thread is in a lecture hall... and the visitors should be required to "check in" and respond to the issue as a matter of public interest for everyone who observes the thread. Let me try to be more conciliatory. Thanks for giving me some constructive feedback on my bahavior--- much appreciated.

[PhilOssifur]

VIEWERS-- I see we're up over 300 viewers now-- many this morning-- reading THIS and yet still refuse to comment... which makes this another step into a bizarro world of silence. If you have the curiousity to click on this link to see what was said, it would be socially good to at LEAST asnwer the question yes or no... does cryonics require a defense of the dollar... I'll try a little survey program so visitors can click on that. Here's the votelet... let's see if we can behave like a real situation here...

http://www.network54...amp;javascript=

[eternaltraveler]

does cryonics require a defense of the dollar

No.

Immortalists have better things to turn their relatively tiny collective might against than a relatively large pyschohistoric force like the declining dollar, especially now when a large degree of inflation is inevitable as the extra money is already in circulation and banks around the world realize that holding a bunch of dollars might not be that good of an idea after all. The strong dollar principle was given up 15 years ago, the only thing propping it up since then being foreign governments who didn't realize this (they do now).

If you keep your money in a savings account or under your mattress that is just stupid.

[cryofan]

1 hr later-- 16 views and no response from Imminst.org members demonstrates the level of either disregard for the dollar or ignorance.

Ignorance, most likely. When it comes to forward thinkers like us, you cannot go wrong with 'ignorance.'

This is very interesting.

Not really.

[cryofan]

In the end it will depend on innovation, growth rate in the populous, and that is the real issue facing the US. The debt is a problem, but declining productivity rates and a declining growth in the population is just as serious a problem. It is a multifaceted issue that isn't as easily grasp by a bunch of pro-Ron Paul internutters.

you have pretty much reproduced that standard conventional wisdom here, but you fail to quantify certain aspects of life. You note that population growth is essential to economic growth, but there are other ramifications of population growth (or lack of it) that you do not quantify and do not consider in your estimates/calculations.

If population does not grow, yes, economic growth will be less. But also the cost of labor per hour will go up, and it will rise faster than the cost of living, so therefore the quality of life for american citizens will improve. But the conventional wisdom you tout does not seem to care about that.

Every cloud has a silver lining. There are two sides to every story. Why is it that the view espoused by you and (not coincidentally) by the mass media (which is funded by ad revenues from investors and business owners who buy labor) never seems to account for the POSITIVE effects of a population that does not grow?

[caston]

We're heading into a period of deflation... it will be like the prices are going back in time...

[advancedatheist]

We're heading into a period of deflation... it will be like the prices are going back in time...

Since the example of Weimar Germany keeps coming up in the hyperinflation discussions I've seen, I wonder about the role of the vastly increased variety of goods available today as a brake on inflation. Americans today probably have 100 times the variety of goods and services on the market that Germans had available to them in the early 1920's. Even without inflation, most Germans couldn't have spent much on things other than the cheapest necessities because these other goods and services simply didn't exist yet. During the worst part of their hyperinflation, they had to take wheelbarrows full of cash to the store to buy bread because their families had to eat. They didn't have to take wheelbarrows full of cash to pay their cell phone bills.

Considering how many unnecessary things like cell phone services Americans can give up without going hungry, causing the prices of these goods to deflate, I suspect we have a lot of potential demand collapse to work through that will resist efforts to hyperinflate the money supply. We've already seen this happen with houses, new cars and middle class lifestyle businesses like Linens N Things.

[niner]

Seriously, all pooping aside, the potential relative human population density isn't simply bullpoop. It's real. Of course you Aristrotelian British bastards will reject it-- but it's where Larouche is. Think about it-- More people = MORE human MINDS-- or brains if you want to be reductionist about it. MORE brains is more BRAIN POWER.

Put THAT in your poop bowl and flush it. BRAIN POWER. You could say that human brain power is directly proportional to human poop. That's for the mathematicians lurking here. You cannot DENY that scientifically what I'm saying is true. I've been threatened with being banned by the moderator by the way. I want you all to support me here and keep me online. You can see that I have valuable contributions to make to your incestuous little group here... the incest being among reductionist logical positivists and assorted anti-larouche cult members. (That was an intentional insult to see if it pushes any buttons-- which are apparently easy to push here).

What in the world makes you think that any random hundred thousand impoverished, drug addicted zombies will produce the same number of creative geniuses as a hundred thousand healthy, well-nourished, well-educated young people? Brain power is not proportional to poop. Maybe exhaled CO2 is proportional to poop, although even that depends on diet.

So the followers of Larouche are the ones who have seen the truth, and everyone else is the cult. Right. Getting banned is a function of ones behavior more than anything else. The quality of ones contributions would probably have an impact on that decision, although a fairly small one. The thing is, it's the quality of ones contributions as judged by others, not as judged by the contributor.

[eternaltraveler]

I suspect we have a lot of potential demand collapse to work through that will resist efforts to hyperinflate the money supply.

we certainly do. That's why we are seeing inflation as basically flat today. Once excess inventories fall enough, and production accommodates to the new lower level of demand we will see lots of inflation. That is probably still more than a year from now. Perhaps a year and a half.

[caston]

I suspect we have a lot of potential demand collapse to work through that will resist efforts to hyperinflate the money supply.

we certainly do. That's why we are seeing inflation as basically flat today. Once excess inventories fall enough, and production accommodates to the new lower level of demand we will see lots of inflation. That is probably still more than a year from now. Perhaps a year and a half.

What about a sudden burst of inflation as the governments spend it then spiraling deflation once we owe it?