Dear Friends,
We are pleased to announce our new article "Demographic Consequences of Defeating Aging", which has been just published by the Rejuvenation Research journal, and is already visible in Pubmed/Medline now:
http://www.ncbi.nlm....pubmed/20426616
For your convenience, we attach below some general information about this new published study.
Comments and suggestions are welcome!
Cordially,
-- Leonid and Natalia
--------------------------------------------------------
- Leonid Gavrilov, Ph.D. , GSA Fellow
- Natalia Gavrilova, Ph.D. , GSA Fellow
Center on Aging, NORC/University of Chicago
Website: http://longevity-science.org/
Blog: http://longevity-science.blogspot.com/
Our books: http://longevity-sci....org/Books.html
=======================================
Rejuvenation Res. 2010 Apr 28. [Epub ahead of print]
http://www.ncbi.nlm....pubmed/20426616
Demographic Consequences of Defeating Aging
Gavrilov LA, Gavrilova NS.
Center on Aging, NORC and The University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois.
E-mail: gavrilov@longevity-science.org
Abstract
A common objection against starting a large-scale biomedical war on aging is the fear of catastrophic population consequences (overpopulation). This fear is only exacerbated by the fact that no detailed demographic projections for radical life extension scenario have been conducted so far. This study explores different demographic scenarios and population projections, in order to clarify what could be the demographic consequences of a successful biomedical war on aging. A general conclusion of this study is that population changes are surprisingly slow in their response to a dramatic life extension. For example, we applied the cohort-component method of population projections to 2005 Swedish population for several scenarios of life extension and a fertility schedule observed in 2005. Even for very long 100-year projection horizon, with the most radical life extension scenario (assuming no aging at all after age 60), the total population increases by 22% only (from 9.1 to 11.0 million). Moreover, if some members of society reject to use new anti-aging technologies for some religious or any other reasons (inconvenience, non-compliance, fear of side effects, costs, etc.), then the total population size may even decrease over time. Thus, even in the case of the most radical life extension scenario, population growth could be relatively slow and may not necessarily lead to overpopulation. Therefore, the real concerns should be placed not on the threat of catastrophic population consequences (overpopulation), but rather on such potential obstacles to a success of biomedical war on aging, as scientific, organizational, and financial limitations.
PMID: 20426616 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
Full text available at:
http://www.lieberton...9/rej.2009.0977
and
http://longevity-sci...ons-RR-2010.pdf
------------------ THE END -----------------------------------
